The other day when I needed some cheering up, I linked to this post at Nancy's Insights. In it Nancy says:
The truth is this election is going to come down to who comes out to vote, baby boomers or college students. Do you want to guess who I am putting my money on? The fact is older Americans have the most at stake. People 45 and up, who are mostly McCain supporters, are the ones paying taxes and they are the main constituency who will feel the impact of an Obama or McCain presidency.
I predict it’s going to be 2004 all over again; the MTV crowd isn’t going to vote for Obama as big as he needs them too. Remember that ridiculous “Vote or Die” campaign targeted to the youth last election? I remember that didn’t work out so well for John Kerry. Maybe I’ll be wrong about this, but I don’t think so. The lack of interest in this first debate tells me that in this election, the same folks who watched and voted in the last election will be the same ones voting this time.
Well, today the Wall Street Journal has the numbers to back that up.
A nationwide poll of Americans who are eligible to vote for the first time, or who skipped the previous election but are registered now, found that they back Sen. Obama over Sen. John McCain by a margin of 61% to 30%. (See full poll findings...)
But that hardly means the Obama campaign can count on them. When asked to rank their interest in the Nov. 4 election, just 49% said they were "very interested." By comparison, 70% of voters of all age groups said they were "very interested," according to a separate Journal/NBC News national poll taken a week ago.
Moreover, 54% of the new voters said they would definitely vote Nov. 4.
Same old, same old, when it comes to the new.
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