Last week I predicted that John McCain would win in Pennsylvania, a state he has trailed by 5-10 points most of the election. The latest Rasmussen poll shows that (shocker here) I will probably be right, as momentum is all going McCain's way. Note the high favorable ratings for McCain:
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 47% of the vote (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members). Eighty-three percent (83%) of Obama voters are certain they will vote for him and not change their mind before Election Day. An identical percentage of McCain voters say the same thing.
A week ago, Obama was up by two points after holding five percentage-point leads in August and July.
The latest poll finds the Republican candidate is viewed more a bit more favorably among voters than his opponent. McCain is viewed favorably by 60%, up three points from a week ago. Obama’s ratings are at 52% favorable, down three points.
Pennsylvania went for Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004, respectively. A McCain win there, along with likely wins in Ohio and Florida, would pretty much seal the election. If McCain wins those, Obama would probably have to win Virginia, Colorado, Missouri and every other state that is currently leaning to Obama. That ain't happening.
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